Consider it Bush’s latest overture in his persistent courtship of Latinos, with his broken espanol and roots in immigrant-rich Texas. In 2000 he won 35 percent of the Latino vote, which is concentrated in key swing states like Florida and New Mexico. This time around, his pollster has said, Bush needs to garner at least 40 percent. A poll released by the Pew Hispanic Center last week proved encouraging to his team, with 54 percent of Latinos approving of Bush’s job performance and 37 percent saying they’d like him re-elected (compared with 47 percent backing a generic Democrat). On its surface, Bush’s immigration proposal seems like an ingenious bid to build on that support. But given the complexity of the Hispanic constituency, there’s no guarantee it will pay off at the polls.
For starters, immigration isn’t necessarily a winning issue with Latinos. Studies show it usually ranks far below jobs, education and health care as top Hispanic concerns. It might appeal to a recent Mexican immigrant, but not a third-generation Latino or a Puerto Rican who’s born a U.S. citizen. In fact, a 2002 survey found that 48 percent of registered Latino voters thought there were too many immigrants in the United States–in line with white attitudes. When immigration has galvanized Latinos, it has typically been in response to perceived attacks–like attempts in California to strip the undocumented of public services–not in response to pro-immigrant policies. A more obvious tactical shortcoming of the Bush proposal: its beneficiaries won’t be voters for years, if ever, and when they are, they’ll most likely vote Democratic. Add to all this the difficulty of enacting immigration reform–with conservatives fuming about rewarding illegal behavior and Democrats pushing for permanent residency–and there’s reason to question the electoral payoff of Bush’s strategy.
Still, nobody’s underestimating Karl Rove’s math skills. Foreign-born Latinos–for whom the immigrant experience is still fresh–have swelled from about one fifth of Hispanic registered voters in 1988 to about half today, according to a poll by the New Democrat Network. “They don’t have a history or legacy with a particular party,” says NDN’s Maria Cardona. “They swing harder than any other constituency in the American electorate.” Bush’s proposal also helps suppress a traditional Democratic attack–Republicans as immigrant bashers–by casting his party as welcoming and inclusive. Democrats “no longer can rely on fear as a mobilization tactic,” says GOP consultant Mike Madrid. It remains to be seen whether viable legislation will emerge from what promises to be a contentious fight in Congress. But, Madrid says, “the fact that we’re talking about that debate is a tactical victory already.” Bush’s Spanish may be broken, but he’s certainly fluent in the language of politics.
